User profiles for T. Ault

Toby R. Ault

Associate Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell …
Verified email at cornell.edu
Cited by 9033

Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

C Deser, F Lehner, KB Rodgers, T Ault… - Nature Climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, …

On the essentials of drought in a changing climate

TR Ault - Science, 2020 - science.org
Droughts of the future are likely to be more frequent, severe, and longer lasting than they
have been in recent decades, but drought risks will be lower if greenhouse gas emissions are …

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

…, K Allen, L Andreu-Hayles, TR Ault… - Nature Reviews Earth & …, 2022 - nature.com
Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent
outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal …

Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth

A Ortiz-Bobea, TR Ault, CM Carrillo… - Nature Climate …, 2021 - nature.com
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic
climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust …

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains

BI Cook, TR Ault, JE Smerdon - Science Advances, 2015 - science.org
In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to
increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced …

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

…, S Pau, J Regetz, TJ Davies, NJB Kraft, TR Ault… - Nature, 2012 - nature.com
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate
change 1 , 2 . For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they …

[HTML][HTML] The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited

M Newman, MA Alexander, TR Ault… - Journal of …, 2016 - journals.ametsoc.org
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North
Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research …

[HTML][HTML] Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data

TR Ault, JE Cole, JT Overpeck, GT Pederson… - Journal of …, 2014 - journals.ametsoc.org
Ault, TR, JE Cole, and S. St. George, 2012: The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal
variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. … Ault, TR, JE Cole …

Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology

…, NJB Kraft, N Salamin, JM Allen, TR Ault… - Journal of …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
… The various spring indices are based on statistical models of phenology that require only
location (latitude) and observational data (daily T min and T max from climate stations) as input. …

Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

TR Ault, JS Mankin, BI Cook, JE Smerdon - Science Advances, 2016 - science.org
… (7) and Ault et al. (8). Namely, for a given time series (y t ), we are interested in finding
intervals when the running mean (of length w) falls below a certain threshold (q). This definition …