User profiles for T. Ault
Toby R. AultAssociate Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell … Verified email at cornell.edu Cited by 9033 |
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, …
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections, …
On the essentials of drought in a changing climate
TR Ault - Science, 2020 - science.org
Droughts of the future are likely to be more frequent, severe, and longer lasting than they
have been in recent decades, but drought risks will be lower if greenhouse gas emissions are …
have been in recent decades, but drought risks will be lower if greenhouse gas emissions are …
Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene
Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent
outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal …
outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal …
Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic
climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust …
climate change (ACC) on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust …
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains
In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to
increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced …
increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced …
Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change
Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate
change 1 , 2 . For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they …
change 1 , 2 . For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they …
[HTML][HTML] The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North
Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research …
Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research …
[HTML][HTML] Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data
… Ault, TR, JE Cole, and S. St. George, 2012: The amplitude of decadal to multidecadal
variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. … Ault, TR, JE Cole …
variability in precipitation simulated by state-of-the-art climate models. … Ault, TR, JE Cole …
Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology
… The various spring indices are based on statistical models of phenology that require only
location (latitude) and observational data (daily T min and T max from climate stations) as input. …
location (latitude) and observational data (daily T min and T max from climate stations) as input. …
Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest
… (7) and Ault et al. (8). Namely, for a given time series (y t ), we are interested in finding
intervals when the running mean (of length w) falls below a certain threshold (q). This definition …
intervals when the running mean (of length w) falls below a certain threshold (q). This definition …